UK commercial audio forecast to deliver a new era of growth

New analysis from Radiocentre forecasts commercial audio listening to grow by 20% over the next decade, with advertising revenues also set to grow.

The combined commercial audio market is forecast to deliver significant audience growth over the next decade, according to new analysis unveiled by Radiocentre today.

The forecasts predict total commercial audio listening will continue its growth momentum with total weekly hours expected to be around 20% higher in 10 years’ time.

The new figures were revealed at Radiocentre’s Tuning In conference today and were commissioned by the industry body to help inform the Digital Radio and Audio Review launched by government earlier this year.

The audience forecasts, led by media consultant Mathew Horsman, indicate commercial podcast listening will be a significant driver of growth, with listening hours effectively doubling over this period. Ad-funded streaming is also forecast to grow, while commercial radio is likely to remain incredibly resilient, with some increases in its total weekly hours. Crucially, the growth in digital audio and podcasts is not forecast to come at the expense of linear commercial radio.

The way people listen to radio is expected to continue to change, with the shift to online radio listening expanding further, driven by the on-going adoption of smart speakers. The base-case forecast suggests the majority of live commercial radio listening will probably come from online platforms by the early 2030s, but broadcast platforms like DAB are likely to have an important role to play for some time yet.

Separate revenue forecasts, developed by Enders Analysis, suggest that total audio advertising, including radio, podcasts and streaming, will also grow over the next decade.

Radiocentre CEO Matt Payton says:

“These are obviously only forecasts, and there are many variables that could knock things off course, but they show that the commercial audio industry remains buoyant and has capacity for real growth.

This next era of growth offers a great opportunity for brands of all types to tap into the reach, resonance and results audio is proven to deliver. And as we’ve heard at Tuning In today, all of this can help brands deliver better outcomes.”